{
  "attempts": [],
  "blockers": [
    {
      "code": "parity_diagnosis_unavailable",
      "detail": "Issue #399 production-parity diagnosis is not ready; #397 has no admissible corpus and #398 has no accumulated eligible mature evidence."
    },
    {
      "code": "candidate_family_not_preregistered",
      "detail": "Freeze, hash, and archive the bounded candidate-family preregistration and protocol before scoring; this readiness command accepts no candidate registry or completed evaluation evidence."
    }
  ],
  "candidate_winner": null,
  "candidates_preregistered": false,
  "candidates_scored": false,
  "d3_shadow_prerequisites": [
    "Selection passes all frozen criteria with complete attempt/failure accounting and no reused final holdout.",
    "Freeze selected configuration, policy identity, start/end, cutoff, and stopping rule before D3 begins.",
    "Run disjoint prospective shadow confirmation for at least 30 days with at least 200 exact mature pairs per horizon and no unreported failures.",
    "Human review of immutable evidence; production is unchanged."
  ],
  "evidence": {
    "parity_report": {
      "path": "docs/research/ISSUE_399_PRODUCTION_PARITY_BLOCKED.json",
      "sha256": "5347816da8e99ff5ec9635684b291f5c9b403f502fac75cd5d281ee23b184211"
    }
  },
  "human_review_only": true,
  "issue": 400,
  "metrics": null,
  "production_changes": false,
  "protocol_sha256": "4b2bd3e31ecdb6bf9cf291a01526bbbf6595eb9c06a665be34660f8e83f94873",
  "protocol_to_freeze_before_scoring": {
    "baselines": [
      "frozen_champion",
      "persistence",
      "strongest_naive"
    ],
    "candidate_family": "Hash an immutable preregistration manifest that enumerates every candidate, its configuration/identity, the bounded family, and all planned comparisons before scoring; record every attempted, failed, blocked, and excluded candidate.",
    "folds": "Nested earlier purged walk-forward folds; all candidates, frozen champion, persistence, and strongest naive baseline use the exact same origin/target/horizon keys.",
    "horizons_hours": [
      2,
      4,
      8,
      16
    ],
    "hypotheses": "Freeze directional, bounded candidate-versus-champion hypotheses before scoring.",
    "minimum_effect": "Preregister a primary improvement floor of at least 3%.",
    "multiplicity": "Predeclare a whole-family adjustment (Holm, Bonferroni, Sidak, or BY as appropriate) across every attempted candidate, comparison, horizon, and reported stratum; retain failed attempts in family accounting.",
    "outcomes": [
      "MAE",
      "signed_bias",
      "direction_accuracy",
      "failures"
    ],
    "prospective_confirmation": "After selection freeze, confirm only the selected candidate on disjoint prospective D3 shadow evidence; minimum 30 calendar days and 200 exact mature pairs at each supported horizon (2h, 4h, 8h, 16h). Apply the frozen per-horizon regression and directional-loss safeguards as well as primary, adjusted-interval, and baseline-skill criteria; track every attempt and failure.",
    "review": "Selection is recommendation-only and requires human review; no automatic winner, promotion, or production forecast/configuration changes.",
    "stopping_rule": "Fixed cutoff and stopping rule declared before evaluation; no optional stopping.",
    "thresholds": "Freeze primary metric, adjusted confidence lower bound greater than zero, positive skill versus persistence and strongest naive baseline, per-horizon/segment powered regression no greater than 5%, and directional-loss increase no greater than 2 percentage points before scoring.",
    "uncertainty": "Paired dependence-aware moving-block uncertainty using the existing final-selection contract."
  },
  "schema_version": 1,
  "selection_prerequisites": [
    "Admissible versioned point-in-time corpus and passing production-parity diagnosis (#397/#399).",
    "Accumulated eligible, exact-key, mature production-parity evidence with all attempts and failures (#398/#399).",
    "Immutable preregistration and hashes for hypotheses, bounded candidate family, outcomes, horizons, folds, minimum effects, stopping rule, and thresholds.",
    "Exact shared walk-forward keys, existing final-selection gates, dependence-aware paired moving-block uncertainty, and family-wide multiplicity adjustment."
  ],
  "skill_inference": false,
  "status": "blocked"
}