{
  "blockers": [
    {
      "code": "canonical_corpus_ineligible",
      "detail": "Require ready_for_replay plus exact 32,136 target and 4,320 warm-up coverage, zero gaps/duplicates/errors, named USD venue/pair, source hash, and vintage/revision provenance (issue #397)."
    },
    {
      "code": "prospective_ledger_evidence_missing",
      "detail": "Export the #398 prospective shadow ledger with exact origins, horizons, policy/configuration identity, failures, and matured actuals; then rerun with --ledger."
    },
    {
      "code": "frozen_prospective_cohort_not_ready",
      "detail": "Frozen #419 prospective cohort report is required for prospective readiness."
    }
  ],
  "canonical_skill_claim": false,
  "evidence": {
    "corpus_audit": {
      "path": "docs/research/ISSUE_397_CANONICAL_BENCHMARK_AUDIT.json",
      "sha256": "e2bf0c671a5a4327c6852d02614a7d2e403ed12f8fe7c4362336c5e87d44a0c7"
    },
    "frozen_prospective_cohort": {
      "blocked_reasons": [],
      "canonical_skill_claim": false,
      "confirmatory_forecasts": null,
      "evaluation_as_of": null,
      "expected_pairs": null,
      "latest_provenance_complete_origin_at": null,
      "matured_pairs": null,
      "origin_cutoff_at": null,
      "path": null,
      "ready": false,
      "right_censored_forecasts": null,
      "sha256": null,
      "timestamp_eligible_forecasts": null,
      "timestamp_eligible_legacy_excluded": null
    },
    "frozen_protocol": {
      "file_sha256": "1b8c6705d53882a66c0ab1277cf2a63c845d00c2c7d0cc978c0c75d8121efd18",
      "path": "docs/research/ISSUE_410_SCORING_PROTOCOL.json",
      "protocol_sha256": "4da936d505df9a15cbd073ee85ee0e4ed2db483e6058f6b81ce163f4724bb4f0",
      "protocol_version": "v11-prospective-1.0.1"
    },
    "prospective_ledger": {
      "champion_configuration_id": null,
      "confirmatory_forecasts": null,
      "matured_pairs": null,
      "path": null,
      "policy_id": null,
      "sha256": null
    }
  },
  "evidence_tracks": {
    "historical_canonical": {
      "canonical_corpus_required": true,
      "metrics": null,
      "status": "blocked"
    },
    "prospective": {
      "canonical_skill_claim": false,
      "metrics": null,
      "status": "blocked"
    }
  },
  "frozen_cohort_readiness": {
    "blocker": "Frozen #419 prospective cohort report is required for prospective readiness.",
    "status": "blocked"
  },
  "gates": {
    "corpus": "blocked",
    "eligible_mature_production_policy_evidence": "blocked",
    "frozen_protocol": "passed"
  },
  "inference_requirements": {
    "dependence_aware_uncertainty": "moving-block paired resampling over exact shared keys",
    "multiplicity": "predeclared family-wise adjustment across all comparisons and strata"
  },
  "issue": 411,
  "last_verified_prospective_snapshot": {
    "blockers": [
      "versioned_provenance_mismatch",
      "no_confirmatory_versioned_forecasts_in_frozen_cohort"
    ],
    "code_sha256": "79a95fc3debd4134ab68cfc55795007a340f15a6eff2ef7212a875a9846c28fc",
    "cohort_sha256": "462287eb433a27c16e4f25360d9ee40e5dda2fabdced13e5390859a055f7bbb8",
    "confirmatory_forecasts": 0,
    "database_sha256": "b102f14db535264ecc2474a3b338c929abea4c39616f233a5701611c9300f57f",
    "evaluation_as_of": "2026-09-27T11:00:00Z",
    "expected_pairs": 0,
    "latest_origin_mature_for_cohort": false,
    "latest_provenance_complete_origin_at": "2026-09-27T11:00:00Z",
    "matured_pairs": 0,
    "metrics": null,
    "origin_cutoff_at": "2026-09-26T19:00:00Z",
    "snapshot_at": "2026-09-27T11:00:00Z",
    "source": "docs/research/FROZEN_SHADOW_COHORT.md sanitized live-artifact verification",
    "timestamp_eligible_forecasts": 48,
    "timestamp_eligible_legacy_excluded": 48
  },
  "metric_status": "not_computed_blocked",
  "metrics": null,
  "metrics_interpretable_as_canonical": false,
  "next_action": "Resolve blockers, preserve immutable evidence and hashes, then rerun this audit before executing replay.",
  "replay_manifest_required": [
    "corpus_sha256",
    "ledger_sha256",
    "policy_id",
    "configuration",
    "code_revision",
    "command",
    "evaluation_cutoff"
  ],
  "required_comparisons": [
    "production_policy",
    "persistence",
    "seasonal_naive",
    "strongest_simple_baseline"
  ],
  "required_metrics": [
    "mae",
    "bias",
    "direction_accuracy",
    "samples",
    "failures"
  ],
  "required_shared_key": [
    "origin_at",
    "target_at",
    "horizon"
  ],
  "schema_version": 1,
  "status": "blocked",
  "stratification": [
    "horizon",
    "regime"
  ]
}