{
  "issue": 412,
  "schema_version": 1,
  "status": "blocked",
  "disposition": "no_scoring_no_hypothesis",
  "as_of": "2026-09-27T11:00:00Z",
  "diagnosis_gate": {
    "issue_411_report_status": "blocked",
    "protocol_gate": "passed",
    "corpus_gate": "blocked",
    "eligible_mature_production_policy_evidence_gate": "blocked",
    "adequately_powered_concrete_context_horizon_failure_identified": false,
    "confirmatory_forecasts": 0,
    "expected_pairs": 0,
    "matured_pairs": 0,
    "timestamp_eligible_forecasts": 48,
    "timestamp_eligible_legacy_excluded": 48,
    "latest_provenance_complete_origin_at": "2026-09-27T11:00:00Z",
    "latest_origin_mature_for_cohort": false,
    "diagnosis": null
  },
  "evaluation": {
    "contexts_scored": 0,
    "target_policies_scored": 0,
    "candidates_preregistered": 0,
    "folds_run": 0,
    "holdout_accessed": false,
    "metrics": {
      "primary_loss": null,
      "per_horizon": null,
      "direction": null,
      "interval": null,
      "failures": null,
      "sample_counts": null,
      "uncertainty": null,
      "adjusted_comparisons": null
    },
    "winner": null,
    "recommendation": null
  },
  "production_changes": false,
  "reopening_gates": [
    "A later immutable #411 readiness/evaluation artifact identifies a specific context/horizon failure from eligible, mature, exact-key evidence.",
    "That diagnosis meets #410 minimum evidence requirements: at least 200 paired origins per horizon and 8 effective independent blocks per comparison; sparse or unavailable cells remain blocked/inconclusive.",
    "Before any candidate score access, preregister the diagnosis-linked bounded candidate family, model/checkpoint identity, outcomes, comparisons, fixed folds, exclusions/failures, stopping rule, practical effect and complete multiplicity family.",
    "Use nested earlier purged walk-forward folds and exact shared UTC origin/target/horizon/input-vintage keys; reserve and lock an untouched chronological final holdout disjoint from candidate selection and all prior evaluations."
  ],
  "next_action": "Do not score or propose context/target candidates now. First resolve #411 evidence blockers, rerun its frozen readiness protocol, and require an adequately powered measured diagnosis; only then preregister the bounded #412 design and disjoint holdout before scoring.",
  "production_policy_changed": false,
  "evidence": {
    "issue_411_readiness_report": {
      "path": "docs/research/ISSUE_411_PARITY_BASELINES_BLOCKED.json",
      "sha256": "c1b3471495c0c32bcb8a5a90ae7fe5a4e20a6bdcb5d4d617e8d83e8be18202a7"
    },
    "frozen_protocol": {
      "path": "docs/research/ISSUE_410_SCORING_PROTOCOL.json",
      "file_sha256": "1b8c6705d53882a66c0ab1277cf2a63c845d00c2c7d0cc978c0c75d8121efd18",
      "protocol_sha256": "4da936d505df9a15cbd073ee85ee0e4ed2db483e6058f6b81ce163f4724bb4f0",
      "protocol_version": "v11-prospective-1.0.1"
    },
    "canonical_corpus_audit": {
      "path": "docs/research/ISSUE_397_CANONICAL_BENCHMARK_AUDIT.json",
      "sha256": "e2bf0c671a5a4327c6852d02614a7d2e403ed12f8fe7c4362336c5e87d44a0c7",
      "status": "blocked",
      "observed_target_hours": 0,
      "expected_target_hours": 32136,
      "observed_warmup_hours": 0,
      "expected_warmup_hours": 4320
    },
    "issue_411_last_verified_prospective_snapshot": {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-09-27T11:00:00Z",
      "evaluation_as_of": "2026-09-27T11:00:00Z",
      "origin_cutoff_at": "2026-09-26T19:00:00Z",
      "code_sha256": "79a95fc3debd4134ab68cfc55795007a340f15a6eff2ef7212a875a9846c28fc",
      "database_sha256": "b102f14db535264ecc2474a3b338c929abea4c39616f233a5701611c9300f57f",
      "cohort_sha256": "462287eb433a27c16e4f25360d9ee40e5dda2fabdced13e5390859a055f7bbb8"
    }
  }
}