{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "issue": 417,
  "status": "blocked",
  "disposition": "no_qualifying_candidate_d3_not_launched",
  "as_of": "2026-09-27",
  "candidate": null,
  "champion": null,
  "candidate_champion_pair": null,
  "d3": {
    "launched": false,
    "origins": 0,
    "pairs": 0,
    "pairs_by_horizon": {
      "2h": 0,
      "4h": 0,
      "8h": 0,
      "16h": 0
    },
    "metrics": null,
    "accuracy_peeks": 0,
    "outcomes_accessed": false
  },
  "production_mutated": false,
  "reason": "Issue #416 records zero candidates and no winner. Issue #417 explicitly requires recording this outcome without starting D3.",
  "evidence": [
    {
      "issue": 411,
      "path": "docs/research/ISSUE_411_PARITY_BASELINES_BLOCKED.json",
      "sha256": "c1b3471495c0c32bcb8a5a90ae7fe5a4e20a6bdcb5d4d617e8d83e8be18202a7",
      "facts": {
        "status": "blocked",
        "confirmatory_forecasts": 0,
        "matured_pairs": 0,
        "metrics": null
      }
    },
    {
      "issue": 416,
      "path": "docs/research/ISSUE_416_BLOCKED_FAMILY_CLOSEOUT.json",
      "sha256": "46f379cf874d46889f067dfcf9154a2f04549d3cb26ea234466845f5bb74b70b",
      "facts": {
        "status": "blocked",
        "actual_candidate_attempts": 0,
        "actual_candidate_scores": 0,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "winner": null,
        "metrics": null,
        "d3_used": false
      }
    },
    {
      "issue": 410,
      "path": "docs/research/ISSUE_410_SCORING_PROTOCOL.json",
      "sha256": "1b8c6705d53882a66c0ab1277cf2a63c845d00c2c7d0cc978c0c75d8121efd18",
      "protocol_sha256": "4da936d505df9a15cbd073ee85ee0e4ed2db483e6058f6b81ce163f4724bb4f0",
      "protocol_version": "v11-prospective-1.0.1"
    }
  ],
  "reopening_contract": {
    "pre_frozen_before_any_d3_score": [
      "#416 selects exactly one candidate that passes its frozen selection contract; freeze the candidate/champion pair, model/checkpoint, policy, code, data/source/vintage lineage, boundaries, cutoff, stopping rule, practical effect, and D3 metrics/criteria; hash the complete preregistration.",
      "D3 origins/outcomes are disjoint from candidate development, inner/outer folds, and final holdout.",
      "Use exact UTC (origin_at, target_at, horizon) pairs with shared source vintage, targets, and scoring rules for candidate, champion, persistence, and strongest naive.",
      "Collect at least 30 calendar days and at least 200 exact mature pairs at each of 2h, 4h, 8h, and 16h; report dependence/effective sample size and remain blocked if unmet.",
      "Retain every forecast, failure, retry, and exact maturity status; apply frozen family-adjusted uncertainty and primary-effect, baseline-skill, per-horizon-regression, directional-loss, and interval-safety criteria.",
      "Use only predeclared health/operational checks before final analysis; no repeated accuracy testing or favorable early stopping. Report interruptions and data-vintage changes under the frozen plan.",
      "Report blocked, inconclusive, negative, or eligible for human review with artifacts/hashes; no automatic promotion, public output change, or configuration mutation."
    ]
  },
  "limitations": [
    "No D3 accuracy evaluation was run; all metrics are null.",
    "No D3 accuracy peeks or outcome access occurred.",
    "No production change occurred.",
    "Issue #418 remains open and is not resolved by this blocked disposition."
  ]
}